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February 18.2026
2 Minutes Read

Why Canada's Home Sales Plunge in January Is Linked to Weather and Market Trends

Multiple for sale signs indicate Canada home sales plunge in January.

Understanding the Drop: What’s Happening in Canada’s Housing Market?

As 2026 begins, Canada’s housing market faces significant challenges, particularly in Ontario, where home sales have dipped considerably. Reports indicate that overall national home sales decreased by 5.8% from December, with the actual sales plunging 16.2% compared to last January, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

This downturn is partly attributed to outside factors such as severe winter storms. Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, explained that the conditions were exacerbated in central Ontario due to a historic snowstorm, restricting mobility and discouraging potential buyers. The storm's impact was significant enough that many couldn't even access their driveways, illustrating how real-life conditions can affect market dynamics.

The Financial Picture: Supply, Demand, and Prices

While sales are down, the number of new listings surged by 7.3%, leading to an oversupply in the market. The sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to 45%—a drop from 51.3% in December—which indicates a less competitive market for sellers. This increase in inventory is pivotal, resulting in a slight shift towards a buyers’ market, where the average months of inventory climbed to 4.9.

Interestingly, although the national average home prices saw a decrease—2.6% year-over-year, settling at $652,941—the decline appears to vary regionally. Home values in larger markets, particularly Ontario, have faced steeper declines compared to modest price increases in smaller regions, such as Calgary and Regina. This discrepancy highlights the nuanced interactions between geographic market conditions in Canada’s real estate landscape.

Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Canadian Home Buyers?

Despite January's bleak numbers, Cathcart remains hopeful about the recovery of the housing market in 2026, barring another severe winter event. He stated, "Unless we get another two-foot snowstorm in the most populated part of Canada, our forecast is for things to improve." This sentiment suggests that while immediate conditions have caused a slowdown, long-term trends may still favor recovery and stabilization.

For potential homebuyers, navigating these shifts can be daunting. Affordability remains a pressing issue, with many waiting for interest rates to decrease before making a purchase. However, current indicators suggest that rates may not change for the foreseeable future, adding another layer of complexity for first-time buyers.

In conclusion, while January painted a challenging picture for Canada's housing market, understanding the causes—from weather impacts to regional price variations—can help buyers and sellers navigate this fluctuating landscape effectively.

Real Estate Market Trends

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02.21.2026

How Rising Interest Rates Are Shaping Sydney Auctions: Insights for Buyers

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02.21.2026

Critical Tips for Homebuyers on How to Wire Money for Closing Safely

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02.21.2026

Why Canada Should Cut GST/HST for All New Homebuyers Now

Update Time for Comprehensive Tax Reform in Canada’s Housing Market The Canadian housing market is in turmoil, with home sales experiencing a significant drop across major centers, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Reflecting a startling 11.2% decline last year, sales for single-family homes have plummeted by 63%, while condominium sales have dropped by 89% compared to the 10-year average. As interest rates rise and consumer confidence takes a hit due to trade tensions, the need for immediate action to revitalize this essential sector has never been more urgent. Expanding GST Measures: A Solution for All New Homebuyers Brad Carr's proposal to broaden the eligibility for the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) rebate to all new homebuyers rather than just first-timers could be the catalyst needed to stimulate a stagnant market. Numerous young Canadians are feeling increasingly locked out of homeownership amid rising costs, and expanding the tax cut could lower upfront expenses for new buyers—a critical factor in a climate where confidence is waning. Comparative Insights on Housing Affordability The need for reform echoes the findings of the "Out of Reach" report by the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce and the Economy, which illustrated how even as construction and land costs have receded, homes remain unaffordable. The discrepancy in the market is leaving many, particularly younger Canadians, feeling disenfranchised from ever achieving homeownership. Impact of Current Policies on Housing Sales While the Prime Minister's recent announcement to eliminate the GST for first-time homebuyers is a positive step, it's clear that these measures must extend beyond just first-time buyers. By implementing a broader policy change, not only would immediate relief be provided to a larger segment of the population, but such a strategy could also lead to an overall increase in housing supply, as builders respond to a rising interest in new projects fueled by a less burdensome tax structure. Decisive Action for a Better Future As Canada grapples with these pressing issues, the call for change is echoed by economic principles that suggest lower upfront costs lead to higher demand, ultimately generating revenue through increased real estate activity. It’s time for policymakers to act decisively, demonstrating that homeownership can still be attainable. By considering a wider implementation of GST and HST cuts for all new homebuyers, Canada could pave the way toward a more equitable housing market, fostering both confidence and hope in prospective homeowners across the nation.

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